Risk Analysis

Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting—from the underlying data used for estimation and calibration to the estimated variables within the models to the input assumptions about future conditions. To capture that uncertainty, CS develops risk analysis models that provide systematic methodology for producing a range of forecasts. We also engage in scenario planning to test major assumptions.  Our approach recognizes that planning—even with the most advanced, state-of-the-practice travel demand models—must recognize the uncertainties accompanying predicted outcomes.