Climate Change and Transportation

Overview

Climate change may be the most significant issue facing transportation today. Scientific consensus on climate change has grown rapidly in recent years as advances in analysis have been achieved. As evidenced by the most recent draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the reality of climate change – and the anthropogenic influences on that change – is now broadly accepted by both national and internationally-recognized scientific organizations and governments. Rising global temperatures pose two major challenges for the transportation community:

• Ensuring that our transportation networks can withstand the changes to our climate that are already underway, and
• Reducing mobile source greenhouse gas emissions to avert future climate disruption.

Transportation accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. oil consumption, and transportation vehicles emit 27 percent of the nation’s total greenhouse gas emissions (a further 9 percent of U.S. emissions are emitted from vehicle manufacture and motor fuel production). Since 1990, transportation sector emissions have grown more in absolute terms than any other sector.

The transportation community is being challenged to develop strategies to reduce fossil fuel use, both to ensure energy security and to contribute toward efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A portfolio of 1) advanced, energy-efficient technologies, 2) shifts to non-carbon based fuels and energy sources, 3) system management, and 4) demand management strategies will be required to reduce transportation’s contribution to greenhouse gases.

Further, transportation decision-makers are beginning to consider how climate change may affect the transportation system. Changes in temperature, sea-level rise, precipitation, and storm activity may have important implications for infrastructure design, operations, and maintenance, as well as the location of new facilities and the levels of investment required. How these considerations are incorporated into the transportation planning process is emerging as an area of concern for transportation managers.

Resources

Information on climate change and transportation is available on the following web sites:

• U.S. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 
• U.S. Global Change Research Program 
• U.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality 
• U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency 

Experience

Cambridge Systematics is engaged in cutting edge research building upon years of technical and strategic support to state, Federal, and local clients on a variety of energy and climate issues related to transportation.

• Climate Change Policy Development – Cambridge Systematics played a key role in the 1999 formation of the U.S. DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting (CCCEF) and in development of the Center’s first strategic plan. Our staff have expertise in developing inventories, and categorizing, quantifying, and assessing transportation greenhouse gas emissions for non-profit, private, Federal and regional clients. We also provided strategy guidance to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on mitigating the urban heat island effect through the use of alternative pavements. View the draft Cool Pavement Report.
• Climate Impacts and Transportation Planning – Climate change and variability may require changes in how we design, operate, and plan our transportation systems. Cambridge Systematics has been at the forefront of this issue, supporting a first-of-its-kind interdisciplinary workshop of transportation experts and climate scientists to identify research priorities on this critical topic. View The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation workshop summary and proceedings. We helped design and are now supporting a U.S. DOT/U.S. Geological Survey study to investigate the impacts of climate change on transportation networks in the Gulf Coast – the most comprehensive effort of its kind and a priority project of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Looking ahead, the methodologies developed through this case study analysis can help transportation managers and planners in other regions to assess risks and consider strategies to adapt. Watch for the final report on this study in late 2007. View the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study prospectus.
• Vehicle Technology Modeling – Our experts have examined energy and emission impacts resulting from the introduction of new vehicle technologies for the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) as well as for Federal agencies and other state and nonprofit clients in the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest. The breadth of experience includes evaluating fuel economy issues and alternative fuels for light duty passenger vehicles, as well as trucking and aviation, in regional, Federal and international contexts. We have utilized a variety of modeling tools, including the MOBILE model series and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model, to study the effects of emission standards and alternative fuels.
• Travel Demand Management – Pricing and other forms of travel demand management are important tools in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing fuel consumption. Cambridge Systematics staff have experience developing and analyzing greenhouse gas emission reduction measures at the local, regional, and national levels. The firm has nationally-recognized analytical expertise in travel demand forecasting, revenue analyses, transportation pricing, and transportation demand management programs. Cambridge Systematics has conducted pioneering analyses of how vehicle ownership and usage patterns change as a function of pricing and other policy strategies for the California Energy Commission, and has expanded this work in subsequent projects with the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Portland MPOs. We developed the U.S. EPA’s COMMUTER model, which calculates the vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and emissions reductions associated with employer-based transportation programs. Currently, we are assessing market-based transportation strategies to reduce fuel consumption for the U.S. Department of Energy.

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